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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."